Chelsea won't retain title and Palace face the drop: the study that has predicted PL final table

After seven Premier League fixtures, the initial pre-season forecasts may have shifted. In order to determine its own predictions, Gracenote uses Euro Club Index ranking of top-flight clubs and then runs season simulations one million times to predict the final table.

Last season's winners Chelsea were strong favourites to defend the title, but after a blistering start from Manchester City, Guardiola's side now hold the advantage with a 47 per cent chance of winning the league. Manchester United have a 24 per cent chance while Conte's team only have a 13 per cent chance.

Gracenote Sports' head of analysis Simon Gleave spoke about the changes since August: 'Unsurprisingly, the teams who were projected to finish in the top-six pre-season still are, but the exceptional starts of the two Manchester clubs have improved their expected points and positions at the end of the season'.

The form displayed by the teams from Manchester has pushed Arsenal down from third to fifth, with Liverpool finishing sixth. Chelsea drop to third and Tottenham would finish fourth in the final Champions League qualification spot.

Crystal Palace are yet to score a goal, having lost all seven games first under Frank de Boer and then with Roy Hodgson in charge. The Eagles therefore hold a 72 per cent chance of being relegated.

'A start like Palace have had, even taking account of playing at both Manchester clubs and Liverpool, is going to be very tough to bounce back from and Palace are currently exhibiting a similar profile to Sunderland at this stage last season', said Gleave.